A manufacturer wants a five-year loan for a machine. Its own appraisal shows a strongly positive net present value, but the machine saves little cash in years one to three and a lot in years four to eight.
Locked Box: a Worked Example of Price and Leakage
The price is settled early. The cash still has months to leave.
BY MICHAEL SHANG · SIXTEEN YEARS IN COMMERCIAL BANKING · UPDATED · 6 MIN READ
// THE SHORT ANSWER
A locked box answers the question every acquisition has to settle: on which day does the business become the buyer's? It picks a date before signing, agrees the price from the balance sheet on that date, and treats every dollar earned or lost afterwards as the buyer's. Nothing is measured at completion. In return the seller promises that no value has left the business for its own benefit since that date, except what was agreed in advance. For a lender, the amount to be funded is known at signing, and the balance sheet it relies on is months old by the day the money moves.
BASIS Practitioner judgment from sixteen years in commercial banking, set out in How Bankers Think (Highbank Press, 2026). Every borrower on this site is a composite constructed for teaching, not a client. The market is mid-market commercial lending as practised in New Zealand and Australia; where a convention differs elsewhere, the page says so.
// MAKE THE CALL
Issue 11 — The Term Sheet War. A nine-year client brings a competitor's term sheet: 40 basis points inside your pricing, covenant-lite, and a Friday deadline. Your call first, then the senior banker's.
PART OF Corporate Lending and Credit Risk
// 01 — WHY A PRICE IS FIXED FROM A PAST DATE
Between agreeing a sale and completing it, a business keeps trading. Someone has to own the profit, the loss and the cash it makes in that gap. Completion accounts settle it after the event by measuring the balance sheet on the completion day. A locked box settles it in advance: the parties choose a recent balance sheet, usually one that has been audited or reviewed, agree the equity price from it, and from that date the economic ownership passes to the buyer, although the seller still controls the business until completion.
That arrangement only works if the seller cannot empty the box in the meantime. So the sale agreement lists what may not happen: dividends, management charges to the seller's group, bonuses tied to the sale, the seller's deal costs paid by the business, debts owed by the seller waived, assets passed to related parties at less than their value. Any of these is leakage. Items the buyer has agreed to, such as ordinary salaries or a scheduled fee for services the seller's group still provides, are permitted leakage, and they are allowed for in the price.
// 02 — HOW THE PRICE AND THE CLAIM ARE WORKED
Two features vary from deal to deal. The first is value accrual, sometimes called a ticker: because the buyer receives the profits from the box date but pays only at completion, the seller may negotiate a daily amount, or interest on the price, for the days between. The second is the claim period and the security for the promise: the buyer usually has a fixed number of months after completion to claim leakage, and may ask for part of the price to be held back, since a seller that has distributed the proceeds is hard to recover from.
// 03 — THE EXAMPLE
A mattress and bedding manufacturer, constructed for this page like every figure in it, is sold by a family holding company. The box date is 31 March, the price is agreed at US$30.0m on its balance sheet that day, and the agreement adds value accrual of US$5,000 a day to completion. Permitted leakage is the holding company's fee for shared payroll and IT, US$40,000 a month, which the buyer allowed for in the price. Completion is on 31 August.
The buyer paid what it agreed and owns a business with US$0.6m less cash than the price assumed. It can recover the money, but only by claiming against the seller, months later. The permitted fee is not a claim: the buyer agreed to it and priced it. The numbers are the example's, not a market norm.
The buyer's lender reads the same lines differently. Its term loan was sized on the 31 March balance sheet and the buyer's model of cash at completion, so the business starts with US$0.6m less liquidity than the credit paper showed. The facility agreement treats recoveries under the sale agreement as a mandatory prepayment above a small threshold, so when the seller repays, the money goes to the bank rather than back into the business.
// 04 — HOW IT DIFFERS FROM COMPLETION ACCOUNTS
Completion accounts measure the business on the completion day and move the price afterwards, up or down. A locked box measures it on an earlier day and does not move the price at all; the only adjustment is a claim for leakage, which runs one way, from seller to buyer. The buyer of a locked box therefore takes the trading risk of the gap, good or bad, and relies on its diligence of the box balance sheet. The buyer under completion accounts takes the risk of a dispute about the accounts afterwards.
Locked boxes are common in the UK, where many sellers prefer the certainty, and are increasingly used in Australia and New Zealand, where completion accounts have long been the usual mechanism. A locked box suits a business whose balance sheet is reliable and stable, and a short gap between box date and completion. A business with volatile working capital or weak recent accounts is a harder fit.
DEFINED IN ONE PARAGRAPH → · COMPLETION ACCOUNTS → · NORMALISED WORKING CAPITAL →
// 05 — WHERE IT DECIDES A FILE
For an acquisition lender, a locked box makes the amount to be funded certain at signing, apart from the value accrual, which grows if completion is delayed. That certainty is bought with a dated starting point. The credit paper's opening balance sheet is the box balance sheet, rolled forward on the buyer's estimate, and the lender reads three things: who prepared and checked the box accounts, how long the gap to completion is likely to run, and how the leakage promise is backed if the seller is a company that will distribute the proceeds. A short claim period with no money held back leaves the buyer, and so the bank, relying on the seller's goodwill.
// QUESTIONS PEOPLE ASK
- What is the difference between a locked box and completion accounts?
- A locked box fixes the price from a balance sheet at a date before signing and does not adjust it at completion; the buyer takes the business's results from that date and is protected by the seller's promise that no value has leaked out. Completion accounts measure net debt and working capital on the completion day and adjust the price afterwards, up or down. One gives certainty of price at signing, the other accuracy of price after completion.
- What counts as leakage in a locked box deal?
- Leakage is value passing from the business to the seller or people connected with it after the locked box date, without the buyer's agreement. Typical examples are dividends, management or monitoring charges, bonuses paid because of the sale, the seller's own deal costs paid by the business, waived debts and transfers of assets at less than their value. The sale agreement defines it, and the exact list varies from deal to deal.
- What is permitted leakage?
- Permitted leakage is a payment to the seller's side that the buyer has agreed in advance will not give rise to a claim, because it was known and allowed for when the price was set. Ordinary salaries for employees connected with the seller, a scheduled fee for services the seller's group continues to provide, or a specific dividend that the price already allows for are common examples. Items are usually listed by description and amount, so that anything outside the list is leakage.
- Who bears the risk between the locked box date and completion?
- The buyer, economically. From the locked box date, profits and losses belong to the buyer, even though the seller still owns and runs the business until completion. If trading is better than expected, the buyer gains; if worse, the price does not fall. The buyer's protections are the leakage promise, conduct-of-business restrictions on the seller before completion, and any conditions that let the buyer walk away if something material happens.
// NEXT TO IT
- FACILITIES AND THEIR SHAPECompletion accountsThe price is paid on an estimate and settled on an argument.
- FACILITIES AND THEIR SHAPEEquity contribution (acquisition finance)Count the cheque, then read what it is made of.
- FACILITIES AND THEIR SHAPEManagement buy-out (MBO)The buyers know the business. The cash still has to go round.
- FACILITIES AND THEIR SHAPERecurring revenue loan (ARR loan)Lend on the subscriptions, then wait for them to become profit.
// ON WHOSE DESK
The seats that read this term in an ordinary week. Each page says what the seat is for, who arrives in it, and the shape of the round it runs.
- Business relationship managerCarries a book of trading businesses — wins them, keeps them, and is the bank's voice when the answer is no.
- Credit analystReads a borrower and writes the recommendation a decision-maker will act on.
- Lending operations officerTurns an approval into a working facility — documentation, security, drawdown, and the register that says what the bank actually holds.
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