A contract blender of car-care products, constructed for this page like every figure in it, has a US$9m term loan and US$3m drawn on a US$5m revolving line. Its covenant is net debt to twelve-month EBITDA of no more than 3.50 times, tested half-yearly. Net debt is held flat for simplicity. In April its largest customer, 32% of volume, gives notice that it will move to its own plant in December. The forecast:
Test date LTM EBITDA Net debt ÷ EBITDA
June, this year 5.0 12 ÷ 5.0 = 2.40×
December 4.9 12 ÷ 4.9 = 2.45×
June, next year 3.9 12 ÷ 3.9 = 3.08×
December, next 2.9 12 ÷ 2.9 = 4.14× first breach of 3.50×
The covenant will not fail for some twenty months. In May the blender asks to draw a further US$2m for a new blending line. Each drawing repeats a representation that no material adverse change has occurred. The 3.50 times belongs to the example and is not a market norm.
What can the lender show? The accounts do not yet show any change. If the clause speaks only of financial condition, the English approach makes this difficult: the evidence is a forecast, and the borrower's finances today are as they were. In the English case, the court refused to treat future funding needs that were not yet liabilities as part of the financial condition at the date in question. If the clause also covers business or prospects, the case is much stronger. A customer of that size leaving for good is neither temporary nor trivial.
The lender does not declare anything. It writes to reserve its rights, says the drawing cannot proceed while the effect is assessed, and asks for a revised forecast and a plan to replace the volume. Three weeks later the two sides agree monthly reporting, and the blending line is scaled back and funded partly by the owners. The lender has what it needed: a borrower at the table twenty months early.