A US$35m loan was sized on EBITDA of US$10m. Halfway through the year, management cuts its forecast to US$7m.
Pro Forma EBITDA: a Worked Example
Lend against the group that exists, not last year's accounts.
BY MICHAEL SHANG · SIXTEEN YEARS IN COMMERCIAL BANKING · UPDATED
// THE SHORT ANSWER
The day an acquisition completes, the buyer carries all of the new debt but its accounts carry only the months of the bought business it has owned so far. Pro forma EBITDA closes that gap: it measures the test period as though the group had owned the acquired business, and been without anything it sold, from the first day. A lender uses it to size the acquisition loan and to test covenants in the year after, reading the bought earnings as history to be checked against the target's records. Expected savings on top are a forecast, and the facility agreement decides how much of that forecast counts.
BASIS Practitioner judgment from sixteen years in commercial banking, set out in How Bankers Think (Highbank Press, 2026). Every borrower on this site is a composite constructed for teaching, not a client. The market is mid-market commercial lending as practised in New Zealand and Australia; where a convention differs elsewhere, the page says so.
// WORK THE SUM
Every Groundwork file that is a number to work out — cash conversion, debt service cover, expected loss, risk-weighted assets, the margin on a bank's own book — with the working shown in the senior read. One minute each, no signup.
// 01 — WHY THE REPORTED NUMBER MISLEADS AFTER A DEAL
Consolidated accounts include a bought business only from the date control passes. A group that completes an acquisition four months before its year end reports twelve months of its own earnings and four of the target's, while its balance sheet already holds every dollar borrowed to pay for it. Leverage measured on those accounts compares a full year's debt with a partial year's earnings, and looks worse than the business the lender has just financed. A sale works the other way: the debt falls when the proceeds repay it, but the sold business's earnings stay in the trailing figure until a full year has passed.
Accounting goes part of the way. Groups reporting under full IFRS, as adopted in New Zealand, Australia and the UK, disclose the combined group's revenue and profit for the year as though each acquisition had happened at the start of it. That is profit, not EBITDA, and it covers the financial year rather than a covenant's test period. Many mid-market borrowers do not give it at all: Tier 2 reduced-disclosure accounts in New Zealand and simplified-disclosure accounts in Australia are exempt, and UK groups reporting under FRS 102 disclose only the acquired business's revenue and profit since the acquisition date. So the lender usually builds the figure itself, from the target's own records.
// 02 — HOW THE FIGURE IS BUILT
The second line is the one a lender checks hardest. It comes from the target's management accounts or a due diligence report, not from the group's audited figures, and it belongs to a business that was run by someone else for most of the period. The fourth line is an ordinary adjustment of the group's own history. The last line is different in kind: savings from closing a site or merging two finance teams that have not yet happened, or have happened only for part of the period. Facility agreements that allow them commonly ask that the actions be identified, be taken or expected within a set time, and be certified by an officer, and many cap the amount. Agreements commonly apply the same basis to interest, and to debt where a test is run on the day of a transaction, so the new borrowing is counted and any debt the deal repaid is treated as gone from the start of the period.
// 03 — THE EXAMPLE
An industrial cleaning contractor, constructed for this page like every figure in it, buys a smaller rival that completes on 1 December. Its year and its test period both end on 31 March. Net debt after the deal is US$60m. The cap on synergies, 10% of pro forma EBITDA before synergies, belongs to the example and is not offered as a market norm.
The first ratio is the misleading one: a business that has not had a full year to earn on its debt. The second is the business the bank lent to, and its integrity rests on the US$2.8m from the target's own accounts, which the lender ties back to that business's bank statements and tax returns before it relies on it. The third adds a forecast. The US$0.2m the cap kept out is small here; the US$1.8m it let in is three-tenths of a turn of leverage that depends on a depot closing and two payrolls merging on time. In this file the lender sizes the debt on the second ratio, and the synergies affect only the headroom the covenant shows.
// 04 — HOW IT DIFFERS FROM ADJUSTED AND RUN-RATE
Adjusted EBITDA corrects the figures of the business that reported them: the deal costs above are that kind of item. Run-rate EBITDA takes a recent month or quarter and treats it as the new normal, which suits a business that has just changed its prices or won a contract. Pro forma EBITDA changes the boundary of what is being measured. The three are often stacked in one covenant definition, and a lender separates them when reading a compliance certificate, because each rests on different evidence: the first on the books, the second on whether the recent period will last, the third on another company's records.
The base period matters too. Pro forma figures are usually built on LTM EBITDA, the last twelve months, so the adjustment for an acquisition falls away by itself once the business has been owned for a full test period. A synergy add-back has its own clock, set by the agreement, and the add-back cap is where the lender limits how far a forecast can stand in for results.
DEFINED IN ONE PARAGRAPH → · DEBT TO EBITDA → · THE ADD-BACK CAP →
// 05 — WHERE IT DECIDES A FILE
It decides the size of an acquisition loan. The buyer's adviser presents a pro forma figure with synergies included, and the lender rebuilds it in layers so that its credit committee can see how much of the debt rests on each. The negotiation that follows is about the last layer: which savings count, how long the borrower has to deliver them, who certifies them, and the cap. It is also about the definition of an acquisition the borrower may make later without asking, because each one brings its own pro forma adjustment into the covenant.
It decides the first test dates after completion. Without a pro forma clause, a covenant set for the combined group can be breached by the accounts alone. With a generous one, a weak quarter can be covered by savings that have not arrived. A lender who tests the forecast commonly runs the group without the synergies as well, so that the committee paper shows how much of the debt service rests on savings that have not yet arrived.
// SOURCES
The documents the statements on this page rest on. Each was opened and checked when cited.
- Australian Accounting Standards Board, AASB 3 Business Combinations (compiled, compilation date 31 December 2022) — paragraph B64(q) and Appendix C, AusC1 — Requires an acquirer to disclose the acquiree's post-acquisition revenue and profit and the combined entity's revenue and profit as though each acquisition had occurred at the start of the annual period, and exempts Tier 2 simplified-disclosure entities; AASB 3 incorporates IFRS 3 — section 01 and the FAQ.
- External Reporting Board, NZ IFRS 3 Business Combinations — paragraphs NZ 1.2, RDR 63.1 and B64(q) — Carries the same B64(q) requirement and marks it with an asterisk, so a Tier 2 entity applying reduced disclosures need not give it — section 01 and the FAQ.
// QUESTIONS PEOPLE ASK
- Can synergies be included in pro forma EBITDA?
- Only as far as the facility agreement allows. Many agreements permit cost savings and synergies from an acquisition if the actions are identified and taken, or expected, within a set period, and many cap the total as a share of EBITDA or a fixed sum. Revenue synergies are harder to evidence and lenders resist them more. Whatever the document permits, a lender's own credit analysis reads synergies as a forecast and tests the debt without them.
- Is pro forma EBITDA an accounting measure?
- No. It is a measure defined by the facility agreement or by management, not by accounting standards. Full IFRS asks an acquirer to disclose the combined group's revenue and profit as though acquisitions in the year had happened at its start, which is close in spirit, but that is profit for the financial year rather than EBITDA for a covenant's test period. Reduced-disclosure accounts in New Zealand and Australia are exempt from it, and UK accounts under FRS 102 give only the acquired business's results since acquisition.
- How is pro forma EBITDA adjusted for a disposal?
- The sold business's earnings are taken out for the part of the test period in which the group still owned it, so the trailing figure describes only what remains. Debt repaid from the proceeds is already out of the period-end balance, and agreements commonly treat the interest on it as though it had been repaid at the start of the period. Without the earnings adjustment a disposal can flatter leverage, since the earnings of a business already sold would still sit in the denominator.
- How long do pro forma adjustments last?
- The adjustment for the acquired earnings disappears by itself once the business has been owned for a full test period, because the reported trailing figure then includes all twelve months. Synergy add-backs last as long as the agreement says: often a set number of months after completion, after which savings count only if they show in the reported figures. A lender watches for claimed savings that do not arrive and are replaced by new ones.
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