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// WORKED EXAMPLETHE ARITHMETIC A DECISION RESTS ON

Operating Leverage: a Worked Example

Same profit today. Very different profit after a bad quarter.

BY MICHAEL SHANG · SIXTEEN YEARS IN COMMERCIAL BANKING · UPDATED · 6 MIN READ

// THE SHORT ANSWER

Ask how far profit falls when sales fall 10%, and the answer depends less on the size of the business than on what it has already committed to pay. The weight of fixed costs is operating leverage, and it sets that multiplier. A carrier with its own trucks and salaried drivers can lose 70% of its profit on a 10% fall in sales; one that hires subcontractors by the load might lose 20%. Lenders read it because it tells them how much a forecast's sales assumption matters, and because the same arithmetic that cuts profit also brings the business nearer to the point where it cannot meet its debt.

BASIS  Practitioner judgment from sixteen years in commercial banking, set out in How Bankers Think (Highbank Press, 2026). Every borrower on this site is a composite constructed for teaching, not a client. The market is mid-market commercial lending as practised in New Zealand and Australia; where a convention differs elsewhere, the page says so.

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PART OF Credit Analysis for Beginners

// 01 — WHY A LENDER CARES WHAT IS FIXED

A cost is fixed if it stays the same when sales change over the period being looked at. Rent, salaries, insurance, depreciation and software licences are the usual examples. A variable cost moves with volume: fuel, materials, sales commission, a subcontractor paid by the job. The mix is often a choice. A business can own its capacity and carry the cost in every month, or buy it when it needs it and pay more per unit.

The choice sets the shape of profit. Owning capacity gives a high return on each extra sale once costs are covered, and a sharp reversal when sales fall. For a lender the point is asymmetry: a business that doubles its profit does not repay the loan twice over, but one that loses its profit may not repay it at all. So the desk needs to know how quickly a sales miss becomes a cash shortfall.

// 02 — HOW IT IS MEASURED

Contribution = sales − variable costs
Operating profit = contribution − fixed costs
Degree of operating leverage (DOL)
= contribution ÷ operating profit
= % change in operating profit ÷ % change in sales
Breakeven sales = fixed costs ÷ contribution margin

The multiple is true at one level of sales only. It rises as a business nears breakeven and falls as it moves clear, which is why a figure quoted from a good year understates the risk in a bad one. The classification matters as much as the formula. Costs that are fixed over a month may be variable over a year, some move in steps, and a wage bill that looks fixed can only be reduced at the price of redundancy payments. Accounts rarely split costs this way, so a lender usually has to build the split with the borrower, starting from the contribution margin.

// 03 — THE EXAMPLE

Two freight carriers, constructed for this page like every figure in it, each have sales of US$30m and operating profit of US$3m. Carrier A owns its fleet and depots and employs its drivers. Carrier B holds the customer contracts and pays owner-drivers by the load. The fixed and variable splits belong to the example.

Carrier A Carrier B
Sales 30.0 30.0
Variable costs (9.0) (24.0)
Contribution 21.0 6.0
Contribution margin 70% 20%
Fixed costs (18.0) (3.0)
Operating profit 3.0 3.0
DOL 21 ÷ 3 = 7.0× 6 ÷ 3 = 2.0×
Sales down 10% to 27.0:
Contribution 18.9 5.4
Operating profit 0.9 2.4
Change in profit −70% −20%
Breakeven sales 18 ÷ 0.70 = 25.7 3 ÷ 0.20 = 15.0
Fall to breakeven 14.3% 50.0%

Each carrier makes the same profit, and they are not the same credit. At sales of US$27m Carrier A's multiple has risen to 21 times (18.9 ÷ 0.9), so each further dollar of lost sales costs what the last one did but takes a far larger share of the profit that remains. The same arithmetic runs the other way: if sales rise 10%, Carrier A's profit goes to US$5.1m and Carrier B's only to US$3.6m.

Now add debt. Say Carrier A pays US$1.0m of interest on the loans that bought its fleet and Carrier B pays US$0.2m.

Profit before tax 2.0 2.8
After a 10% fall in sales (0.1) 2.2
Change −105% −21%

A 10% fall in sales has taken Carrier A from a profit of US$2.0m to a small loss, before any principal is repaid. Part of its fixed cost is depreciation, which is not cash this year, so its cash position is better than its profit line for as long as the trucks do not need replacing.

// 04 — HOW IT COMBINES WITH THE DEBT

Operating leverage works above the profit line and financial leverage below it, and they multiply. Degree of financial leverage is operating profit divided by profit before tax: 1.5 times for Carrier A (3 ÷ 2) and 1.07 times for Carrier B (3 ÷ 2.8). Multiply each by its operating figure and a 1% move in sales becomes a 10.5% move in Carrier A's pre-tax profit and about 2.1% in Carrier B's, which matches the 105% and 21% above.

A lender also reads what sits on the other side. Carrier A's trucks can be sold, can secure a loan and give it a second way out. Carrier B has little to sell, its margin rests on contracts it can lose, and in a tight market its subcontractors can raise their prices or go to a competitor. Low operating leverage reduces one risk and leaves others.

DEFINED IN ONE PARAGRAPH → · CONTRIBUTION MARGIN → · DEBT SERVICE COVER →

// 05 — WHERE IT DECIDES A FILE

It decides how much weight a forecast's sales line can bear. With a multiple of seven, a small disagreement about volumes becomes a large disagreement about cover, so a downside case on a business like Carrier A starts with sales and the speed at which costs can be cut. It shapes the structure as well: a high fixed-cost borrower may warrant lower amortisation in its early years, more headroom in a covenant, or a liquidity reserve, because the pressure arrives quickly when it arrives.

It also explains a borrower's expansion. A new depot adds fixed costs before it adds sales, so the business moves nearer its breakeven in the year it borrows to grow. A lender asks what the new breakeven will be and how long it would take to reach, rather than reading last year's margin forward.

HOW BANKS TEST FORECASTS → · HOW BANKS READ LOGISTICS →

// QUESTIONS PEOPLE ASK

How do you calculate operating leverage?
Divide contribution, which is sales less variable costs, by operating profit. A business with contribution of US$21m and operating profit of US$3m has a degree of operating leverage of 7, so a 1% change in sales moves profit by about 7%. The same result comes from dividing the percentage change in profit by the percentage change in sales. It holds at that level of sales only.
How does operating leverage differ from financial leverage?
One is created by the cost base and the other by the way the business is funded. Fixed operating costs magnify the effect of a sales change on operating profit. Fixed interest then magnifies the effect of an operating profit change on pre-tax profit. The two compound: a business with a high level of both can see a small fall in sales become a large fall in earnings.
Is high operating leverage good or bad?
It depends on where sales are heading and how steady they are. High operating leverage pays well in a growing, stable business, since most of each extra sale reaches profit. It hurts in a cyclical one. Airlines, manufacturers with heavy plant and software businesses tend to carry a lot of it, for different reasons. A lender is more interested in how stable the revenue is than in the multiple itself.
Which industries have high operating leverage?
Those with heavy spending that is fixed before the first sale: capital-intensive manufacturing, telecommunications, airlines, hotels, and software with high development costs. Retailers and restaurants have large fixed rent bills as well. Trading businesses and those that subcontract delivery tend to have low operating leverage. The industry is a guide, but two companies in one sector can differ widely depending on what each owns.

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