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// WORKED EXAMPLETHE ARITHMETIC A DECISION RESTS ON

Global Cash Flow: a Worked Example

The company can pay. Can the people standing behind it?

BY MICHAEL SHANG · SIXTEEN YEARS IN COMMERCIAL BANKING · UPDATED · 6 MIN READ

// THE SHORT ANSWER

A lender runs a global cash flow when the company's own cover ratio cannot answer the real question: if the owner's guarantee is called, or the family's other commitments bite, is there enough to go round? Every entity and person behind the loan goes into one table, cash in against debts out, after tax and living costs. A tree-care contractor that covers its own debt service 1.52 times covers the whole family's 1.31 times. The term is most used in American lending; desks elsewhere run similar sums under their own policies.

BASIS  Practitioner judgment from sixteen years in commercial banking, set out in How Bankers Think (Highbank Press, 2026). Every borrower on this site is a composite constructed for teaching, not a client. The market is mid-market commercial lending as practised in New Zealand and Australia; where a convention differs elsewhere, the page says so.

// WORK THE SUM

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PART OF Credit Analysis for Beginners

// 01 — WHY THE COMPANY'S OWN RATIO IS NOT ENOUGH

An owner-managed company's accounts show one part of a family's finances. A director's salary, dividends, drawings, a shareholder current account, rent paid to a property company the same people own: each moves money between pockets under the same control. A company can show strong cover because the borrowing was placed in the owners' names, or weak cover because they pay themselves well. Its own ratio cannot tell those apart.

A guarantee makes this the lender's problem twice over. A personal guarantee is worth what the guarantor could pay after a home mortgage, tax and the household's living costs. And in a bad year the company and the household lean on the same income, so the second way out weakens just as the first one fails.

// 02 — HOW THE SUM IS BUILT

Cash available = each company's cash after tax and maintenance capex
+ each related entity's cash, on the same basis
+ owners' salaries and outside income
− personal tax and living costs
Global cover = cash available ÷ all scheduled debt service,
every entity and every person

Three habits keep the table honest. First, count money once. A salary is a cost in the company and income to the owner, so it is correct on both sides, and rent between related entities nets off the same way. A dividend is different: it is paid out of cash the table already holds. Loans between the family's own entities drop out of debt service for the same reason.

Second, count what recurs, and check it against tax returns rather than a statement the owner filled in. Third, count what is not yet due: a guarantee given for a relative's business is a commitment even if nothing is payable today. The term is most used in American lending, and a public supervisory description of it sits in a US handbook for examiners of property lending: required and discretionary cash flows, actual and contingent liabilities, realistic personal costs.

Family trusts need separate handling, especially in New Zealand and Australia, where they often hold the rental property or the shares. The trustees own those assets, so a beneficiary's guarantee does not by itself reach them. A lender may take a guarantee from the trustees, within what the trust deed allows, or leave the trust's income out of the table.

// 03 — THE EXAMPLE

A tree-care contractor, constructed for this page like every figure in it, is owned by a married couple. Its EBITDA of US$1.10m is struck after their salaries of US$200,000 and rent of US$120,000 paid to their own property company. Tax and maintenance capex take US$400,000, its term loans cost US$460,000 a year, and it paid dividends of US$160,000. The property company has outgoings and tax of US$20,000 and a mortgage costing US$110,000 a year. One spouse also earns US$70,000 elsewhere. The household pays US$70,000 of personal tax, spends US$120,000 on living costs, and pays US$100,000 a year on a home loan and car loans.

Company alone: (1,100 − 400) ÷ 460 = 700 ÷ 460 = 1.52×
Cash available US$000
Company, after tax and capex 700
Property co, rent − costs and tax 100
Salaries 200
Spouse's job 70
Personal tax (70)
Living costs (120)
Total 880
Debt service: 460 + 110 + 100 = 670
Global cover: 880 ÷ 670 = 1.31×
The double count: (880 + 160) ÷ 670 = 1.55× ← dividends added as income

The company looks stronger alone because the family's other debts sit somewhere else. Across the whole table the surplus is US$210,000, so a fall of about 19% in the company's earnings, before any saving in tax, leaves nothing over. The last line is the common mistake: the dividend is already inside the company's US$700,000, and counting it again lifts cover above the company's own figure. These levels are the example's, not a market norm.

// 04 — HOW IT DIFFERS FROM THE FIGURES BESIDE IT

Debt service cover reads one borrower against its own debts. Consolidated accounts combine a parent and its subsidiaries, but they stop at the edge of the group: no household is in them, and a sister company owned personally or through a trust is usually outside them too. A statement of position lists what an owner owns and owes on one date, so a guarantor rich in land can pass it and still have no spare income. Connected exposure is the lender's own total across related borrowers, an amount lent rather than a capacity to pay.

A combined figure can also hide the weakest part, because one entity's surplus may not be available to another. Issue 03 is a dairy family dividing two farms between two successors, where the useful work is to take the group apart and underwrite each piece alone.

DEFINED IN ONE PARAGRAPH → · DEBT SERVICE COVERAGE → · ISSUE 03 · THE SUCCESSION →

// 05 — WHERE IT DECIDES A FILE

The table changes what the lender asks for. If the household relies on dividends the company cannot spare, the facility may limit distributions. If a shareholder loan is being repaid out of company cash, the lender may ask for it to be subordinated. If the owners borrowed personally to put capital into the company, that debt is serviced from their salaries, and a pay cut to rescue the company then becomes a problem on the personal side.

It also tests a guarantee before one is relied on, and again before one is released (personal guarantee release). A guarantor with no surplus adds little capacity to repay, though a lender may still want the guarantee for the commitment it signals. The weak point is information: debts at other lenders appear only if they are disclosed or show on a credit report, and borrowing held through companies may not show at all.

// SOURCES

The documents the statements on this page rest on. Each was opened and checked when cited.

  1. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (United States), Comptroller's Handbook: Commercial Real Estate Lending, Version 2.0, March 2022 — analysis of borrower's and guarantor's financial condition — Tells US examiners that cash flows should be assessed globally, counting required and discretionary flows, actual or contingent liabilities, personal debt payments, taxes and living expenses; a US source for the scope described in section 02, not a rule in New Zealand, Australia or the UK.

// QUESTIONS PEOPLE ASK

What is the difference between global cash flow and DSCR?
Debt service cover measures one borrower's cash against that borrower's own loan payments. Global cash flow widens both sides: the cash of the company, its related entities and its owners, against the debts of all of them, after personal tax and living costs. A company can have comfortable cover on its own while the family behind it has little left, which is why a lender relying on an owner's support reads both.
What income counts in a global cash flow analysis?
Income that recurs and can be evidenced: salaries, rent from investments, regular income from other businesses, usually taken from tax returns over several years. Lenders tend to discount one-off gains, income from a trust the person cannot control, and rent from a property that is untenanted. Salary already paid by the borrower counts as personal income because it was deducted as a cost in the company. Living costs and personal tax then come off.
Should dividends be included in global cash flow?
Not when the company paying them is already in the table. A dividend is paid from cash the company's line has counted, so adding it to personal income counts the same money twice. Dividends from a business outside the table are different: they are income, and a lender asks whether that business can keep paying them. Where drawings exceed what a company earns, the excess is also a warning about the company.
Do lenders have to run global cash flow on a guarantor?
It depends on the lender and the market. In business lending in New Zealand, Australia and the UK, lenders generally set their own credit policies on assessing guarantors, and rules protecting individual guarantors vary by market and by the guarantee's terms. A US bank supervisor, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, tells its examiners of property lending that cash flows should be assessed on a global basis. Whatever the rule, a guarantee offered as support has little value in a credit paper until someone has shown what the guarantor could pay.

// NEXT TO IT

// ON WHOSE DESK

The seats that read this term in an ordinary week. Each page says what the seat is for, who arrives in it, and the shape of the round it runs.

  • Credit analystReads a borrower and writes the recommendation a decision-maker will act on.
  • Credit sanctionerHolds delegated authority and signs — or declines — the lending the front line brings.
  • Portfolio managerOwns the credit on a book after the money is out — reviews, covenants, ratings and early warning.

THE IN-TRAY · ONE MINUTE

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A short file on the ground this page covers. Every option opens with how far it sits from a senior banker’s read.

THE NUMBER · THE LOAN · CAPACITY

A company asks to refinance. Its year in four numbers:

EBITDA
US$6m
Capex + tax
US$2m
Interest
US$1m
Principal due
US$2m

What is its debt service cover, on cash available after capital spending and tax?

1 FILES · PICK A CALL ON ANY OF THEM

5 MORE ON THE LOAN · CAPACITY →WHERE DO YOU READ FROM? THE PLACEMENT →