FILE 1 OF 6 · SIGNAL OR NOISE
A garden centre's sales dip every winter and peak every spring. This spring's peak was 15% lower than any of the last six. The year is still on budget, because winter was strong.
// THE IN-TRAY / CHAPTER 66 FILES · ONE MINUTE EACH
THE IN-TRAY · CHAPTER 6 OF HOW BANKERS THINK
6 files on The Three Modes of Watching
The question this chapter answers: How does early recognition of trouble become a reliable output rather than occasional luck?
Make a call on any file and every option opens with how far it sits from the senior banker’s read. There is no score.
FILE 2 OF 6 · SIGNAL OR NOISE
A borrower's revenue is up 6%, in line with plan. Its receivables are up 24%. Both sit inside every limit the covenants set.
Signal or noise?
FILE 3 OF 6 · SIGNAL OR NOISE
For six years a borrower's monthly accounts have arrived by the 10th. This month they come on the 24th, complete and unremarkable.
Signal or noise?
FILE 4 OF 6 · SIGNAL OR NOISE
At the annual review the CFO calls it 'the best year we've had'. Separately, the operations manager mentions losing two senior staff and a key supplier.
Signal or noise?
FILE 5 OF 6 · SIGNAL OR NOISE
A borrower who has paid on time for nine years asks to move its monthly management accounts to quarterly.
Signal or noise?
FILE 6 OF 6 · SIGNAL OR NOISE
For five years a borrower's overdraft has swung between US$200k and US$900k every month. For the last three months it has sat between US$850k and US$900k.
Signal or noise?
6 FILES · PICK A CALL ON ANY OF THEM
// THE WHOLE TRAY
The placement draws three files from each of the eight chapters and ends in a card of where you read from.
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